Namibia’s growing oil and gas ambitions have once again come under scrutiny, and rightly so. The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) has sounded a sober warning that, despite the euphoria surrounding recent discoveries, the promise of thousands of jobs may not materialise as projected. In a country where unemployment hovers around 33%, and where the youth, the majority of the population, bear the brunt, it is not just a question of how much oil lies beneath our seabed, but whether that wealth will translate into decent, sustainable livelihoods for Namibians.
The mirage of job creation
According to government projections, Namibia’s nascent oil and gas industry could create more than 12 000 jobs over the next three decades, with around 5 000 expected during the construction phase alone. But as IPPR director Graham Hopwood cautions, such numbers may be overly optimistic. Beyond the glitter of potential oil revenue lies a more sobering reality: the oil and gas sector is capital-intensive, not labour-intensive. That means the industry creates wealth, but not necessarily work.
Most of the jobs in upstream oil exploration and production are highly specialized, often requiring expertise that takes years to build. Without deliberate policies to localize technical training and skills transfer, the majority of these positions will go to expatriates. Namibia risks becoming another textbook case of the “resource curse”, a nation rich beneath the soil but poor in opportunity. Hopwood’s observation that the government’s optimism is “not backed by sufficient data” should serve as a wake-up call to policymakers who continue to sell oil dreams to the public without hard evidence.
Hopwood and IPPR researchers Martha Nangolo and Dietrich Remmert highlight another glaring concern, the lack of transparency and meaningful consultation. Their recent study, which covered five regions, Kavango West, Kavango East, ||Kharas, Erongo and Khomas, reveals that many residents feel sidelined from the national oil conversation. Communities are worried about environmental risks, governance gaps, and how the oil sector could displace other livelihoods such as agriculture, tourism, and fisheries.
These concerns are not mere academic footnotes. Around the world, oil wealth has too often deepened inequality when citizens are left in the dark. When people are excluded from decision-making, mistrust grows, and resistance follows. As Remmert correctly points out, even the language used to explain oil ventures is overly technical, alienating the very people who will live with the consequences.
Public consultation cannot be a box-ticking exercise, it must be genuine, accessible, and continuous. Ordinary Namibians deserve to understand, in plain language, what is being done in their name and on their land.
Hopwood hints that perhaps the only immediate fiscal benefit might be in levy collection. That statement, while pragmatic, underscores a worrying pattern: government seems content to focus on revenue while leaving the more complex work of employment creation to the private sector or to chance. Levies and taxes are important, but they cannot substitute for real, productive jobs. If the state intends to use oil revenues to fund employment creation, then there must be a transparent framework that clearly spells out how such funds will be reinvested into education, enterprise, and infrastructure.
It would be reckless for Namibia to pin its employment hopes on oil revenue alone. Oil wealth can enrich a few but impoverish many if not managed properly. To avoid this trap, the government must legislate strong local content requirements, ensuring that Namibians, not just multinational corporations, benefit directly from the sector’s growth. Local participation should not be limited to token subcontracting but must include ownership stakes, technical training, and long-term capacity-building.
The conversation must shift from job numbers to job quality. What Namibia needs are not short-term construction jobs, but sustainable employment opportunities that contribute to human capital development. This means aligning oil sector investment with the broader national skills agenda. Vocational training institutions, universities, and research bodies must be equipped to produce petroleum engineers, environmental scientists, geologists, and technicians who can compete globally.
Equally important is the role of the private sector. Foreign investors must be required to contribute to local capacity development as part of their license agreements. Corporate social responsibility cannot be an afterthought — it must be embedded in the core of Namibia’s petroleum policy. The industry’s success will ultimately depend on whether it can lift local communities rather than alienate them.
Namibia stands at a critical juncture. We have seen what has happened elsewhere: Angola, Nigeria, and Equatorial Guinea all began their oil journeys with great promise, only to be mired in corruption, inequality, and environmental degradation. The lesson is simple, oil can either be a blessing or a burden, depending on governance. Without robust institutions, clear communication, and a people-centered approach, Namibia risks repeating those mistakes.
The IPPR’s call for transparency and consultation should therefore be embraced, not dismissed. If handled well, Namibia’s oil and gas discovery could power not just our economy, but our social transformation. But that will only happen if the government ensures that every foreign direct investment, every exploration license, every production agreement, is tied to real benefits for Namibians.
Oil should not become another empty slogan. The time for political rhetoric is over. The Namibian government must publish transparent data on projected job creation, establish a national oil and gas employment strategy, and involve local communities in decision-making. Parliament must demand accountability from the ministries and agencies overseeing this sector, and civil society must remain vigilant.
Foreign direct investment is welcome, Namibia needs it. But investment without inclusion is exploitation. Every barrel extracted from our shores must translate into real opportunity for our people. That is the standard by which this government will ultimately be judged.
If Namibia is to enter the oil era, let it do so with its eyes wide open, insisting not only on profits and production, but on dignity, fairness, and good jobs for every citizen.
