Chamwe Kaira
Namibia’s medium-term trade outlook is shifting as Southern and Central Africa undergo major changes in regional transport networks, according to Almandro Jansen of Simonis Storm Securities.
While the October trade figures still reflect commodity prices, domestic demand and exchange-rate movements, Jansen says the region is entering a logistics realignment that will shape Namibia’s external sector for years.
A key development is Zambia’s Western Corridor Project, which broke ground in late October. The route will offer a shorter and more predictable link between Zambia’s mining belt and the Port of Walvis Bay.
Jansen said the corridor will strengthen Namibia’s role as the preferred Atlantic gateway for landlocked SADC countries. Zambia is ranked as the world’s seventh-largest copper producer. Namibia is positioned to capture rising volumes of copper, cobalt, manganese, and other minerals used in the global energy transition.
Policymakers have also renewed focus on the long-delayed Katima Mulilo–Grootfontein railway line. Jansen said the railway does not exist in any operational form and must be built from scratch, but it remains the missing link in Namibia’s logistics system.
Once completed, it would allow minerals, agricultural goods, timber and general cargo to move through Katima Mulilo and feed directly into TransNamib’s network to Walvis Bay. This multimodal system would lower transport costs, ease pressure on roads and improve reliability for bulk freight.
Because the railway will take years to build, plans for a Grootfontein Dry Port have been prioritised to manage rising truck traffic from Zambia.
Jansen said the dry port would streamline customs, allow mineral sampling, containerise cargo and transfer freight onto rail for the trip to Walvis Bay. Over time, it would operate as a major multimodal hub for cargo from Zambia, the DRC and other regional value chains.
Namibia’s progress comes as Angola’s Lobito Corridor advances. The project has reached the engineering, procurement and construction evaluation stage, with construction in Angola and Zambia set for 2026. Backed by the Benguela Railway, the Lobito Corridor will offer a lower-cost, rail-based route capable of moving large volumes of copper and cobalt, minerals that Namibia also aims to attract through Walvis Bay.
The Lobito Corridor has strong support from the United States, the European Union, the African Development Bank and private concessionaires. Research indicates it could support up to US$1.2 billion in agricultural exports by 2035, widening competition beyond the mining sector.
Jansen said Walvis Bay still has structural advantages, such as better governance, regulatory transparency and operational reliability. These elements matter to mining companies with strict ESG and compliance standards. Existing dry-port facilities for Zambia, the DRC and Botswana also reinforce long-standing trade ties.
He cautioned that Namibia must act quickly to maintain its edge. With the Lobito Corridor progressing, Namibia faces a narrowing window to improve its logistics capacity. Key steps include expanding Walvis Bay’s bulk and container handling capacity, upgrading the Walvis Bay–Oshikango rail line, growing inland cargo hubs, speeding up digital customs systems and starting construction on the Katima Mulilo–Grootfontein railway. Jansen said the Grootfontein Dry Port should be developed at the same time to capture cargo during the transition.
Securing binding transit agreements with Zambia and the DRC will also be important to lock in mineral flows before the Lobito Corridor becomes fully operational. Competitive tariffs and Namibia’s governance record could help keep Walvis Bay as the preferred Atlantic export route.
