Staff Writer
The International Air Transport Association has released its 2026 outlook for Africa as part of the global industry forecast. It said the continent is expected to outpace global traffic growth next year but still faces some of the toughest operating conditions worldwide.
IATA forecasts global air travel growth of 4.9% in 2026, down from the 5.2% expected in 2025.
Africa is projected to surpass the global average with 6% growth in 2026. Cargo demand worldwide is expected to rise 2.6%, with Africa slightly lower at 2%.
Despite stronger demand, profitability remains weak. Of the US$41 billion in global net profit forecast for 2026, African airlines are expected to earn only US$200 million, or a 1.3% margin. This is the lowest margin of all regions. It amounts to US$1.3 profit per passenger, compared to the global average of US$7.9.
“Demand for air travel in Africa is rising faster than in many other parts of the world, but profitability is not keeping pace. With margins of just 1.3%, African airlines are capturing only a fraction of aviation’s economic value. Addressing the barriers that constrain growth is essential to ensure the region’s traffic expansion also delivers financial strength,” said Kamil Al-Awadhi, IATA regional vice president for Africa and the Middle East.
IATA highlighted that African airlines operate in one of the world’s most difficult business environments. Even so, the sector carries long-term potential.
Over the next 20 years, Africa’s aviation market is expected to grow 4.1% a year, reaching 411 million passengers. This is the third-fastest rate globally.
Realising this growth will require targeted reforms to lower costs, improve affordability and expand connectivity.
Al-Awadhi said Africa has significant aviation potential, supported by forecasts showing the continent will record the world’s third-fastest growth rate over the next two decades and could handle more than 400 million passengers a year by 2044.
He noted that progress such as improved visa openness and the adoption of e-visas is already helping strengthen mobility and regional integration.
He stressed that this potential will only be realised if governments reduce costs, improve infrastructure and advance market liberalisation through the Yamoussoukro Decision and SAATM.
He said aviation can drive economic transformation across the continent if the right policy support is in place.
“Governments must treat aviation as a catalyst for development, not a source of revenue. That means reducing costs, improving infrastructure, and advancing market liberalisation through the Yamoussoukro Decision and SAATM. With the right policy support, aviation can be a powerful driver of economic transformation across Africa,” said Al-Awadhi.
