Chamwe Kaira
Namibia’s offshore oil discoveries are helping to renew momentum in Africa’s upstream energy sector. However, tight investment discipline and operational challenges continue to slow development, according to the African Energy Chamber.
Two major offshore discoveries made in Namibia in 2022 by Shell and TotalEnergies marked a turning point for the country’s energy prospects. The finds also boosted exploration interest across the continent, including in Côte d’Ivoire, Angola and Egypt.
In its 2026 Outlook Report, The State of African Energy, the African Energy Chamber says global exploration and production capital spending is expected to reach about US$504 billion by 2026. Africa is forecast to attract about US$41 billion of that total. African hydrocarbon production is expected to remain steady at around 11.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day through 2026. New projects could raise output to about 13.6 million barrels per day by 2030.
The report says investor interest has returned to Africa’s upstream sector, but companies are acting with greater caution. Many are focusing on balance sheet protection and capital discipline.
Namibia’s Orange Sub-Basin is identified as one of Africa’s most important frontier plays. More than six billion barrels of oil equivalent have been discovered in the basin in less than four years. Operators are preparing further high-impact exploration wells.
Elsewhere, Côte d’Ivoire has recorded increased activity following recent deepwater discoveries. Egypt is also seeing renewed momentum in underexplored offshore areas, including new gas finds in the Herodotus Basin.
Libya is drawing fresh attention, with BP and Eni planning to drill the Matsola-1 ultra-deepwater gas prospect later this year. A successful well could unlock deeper exploration opportunities in the Sirte Basin.
The report highlights several frontier and emerging basins with strong exploration potential. These include offshore Namibia and Angola, the ultra-deepwater Congo Fan, the Gabon–Douala Deep Sea Basin, the Herodotus Basin offshore Egypt, and offshore areas of the Sirte Basin.
TotalEnergies points to Namibia as an example of how advanced seismic imaging and subsurface modelling can reduce exploration risk. Its Venus-1 discovery in 2022 is estimated at between 1.5 and 2 billion barrels of recoverable oil. It is regarded as the largest oil discovery ever made in sub-Saharan Africa and has reshaped expectations for the Orange Sub-Basin.
Similar technology is being used offshore Angola. Improved imaging is enabling exploration in deepwater and ultra-deepwater areas once considered too risky. Azule Energy plans to drill the Kianda prospect in late 2025, targeting a large area shaped by complex salt geology.
Despite growing interest, investors remain cautious. Political and security risks in countries such as Nigeria, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of the Congo continue to weigh on decisions. Uncertainty around monetisation and industrialisation strategies also remains a concern.
Upstream investment in Africa has risen steadily over the past three years as the sector recovers from the 2020 downturn. However, industry analysts say global energy companies are prioritising dividends, share buybacks and debt reduction over rapid growth.
Caption
Two major offshore discoveries made in Namibia in 2022 by Shell and TotalEnergies marked a turning point for the country’s energy prospects.
- Photo: Contributed
