Chamwe Kaira
Namibian Ports Authority (Namport) says changing economic conditions among regional trading partners present both opportunities and competitive pressure for Namibia’s ports as countries adjust to slower global growth, infrastructure limits and commodity price swings.
Namport said South Africa’s economy slowed to 0.5% growth in 2024, weighed down by structural challenges, drought, weak performance by state-owned enterprises and ongoing transport and logistics constraints.
While improvements in electricity supply offered some relief, growth prospects remain limited, with GDP expected to rise by 0.7% in 2025 and average 1.2% in 2026 and 2027.
Despite gradual improvements in South Africa’s logistics network, Namport said recent disruptions have redirected cargo to Namibian ports. The authority said keeping this cargo will depend on sustained gains in efficiency and competitive pricing so that traffic remains routed through Walvis Bay and Lüderitz.
In 2024, Angola recorded economic growth, supported by commerce, transport services, diamond mining, oil production, and fishing.
Namport said oil output growth is expected to slow in 2025, with non-oil sectors expected to partly offset the decline. While easing inflation could support services, Angola’s recovery remains exposed to changes in global oil prices and production levels.
Namport identified rising private sector investment in Angolan ports as a growing competitive risk, particularly for westbound cargo. Improved port capacity in Angola could draw traffic from hinterland markets such as Zambia’s Copperbelt and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
To stay competitive, Namport said progress on the Grootfontein–Katima Mulilo rail link and better efficiency along the Walvis Bay–Ndola–Lubumbashi Development Corridor remain critical.
Botswana’s economy contracted by 3% in 2024 after a sharp fall in global diamond demand led to a 24.1% drop in mining output. The downturn pushed up unemployment and poverty levels. Although diamond revenues declined, new agreements with De Beers are expected to stabilise the sector.
Growth is forecast to recover to 0.6% in 2025, supported by higher copper output and renewable energy projects, with medium-term growth projected at about 4%.
Namport said Botswana remains an important market, especially as copper exports and diversification efforts advance.
However, weak domestic demand and fiscal pressure are expected to limit trade growth in the near term.
Zambia recorded GDP growth of 4% in 2024, exceeding earlier forecasts.
Namport said growth was driven by mining, information and communication technology, financial services and construction, while agriculture performed better than expected despite drought conditions.
Fiscal discipline resulted in a primary surplus, and social protection measures reduced pressure on vulnerable households.
Growth in Zambia is expected to strengthen to 5.8% in 2025, supported by a recovery in agriculture, increased copper production and gradual improvements in electricity supply. Inflation has begun to ease after peaking in early 2025, although power shortages remain a risk.
Namport said Zambia remains a core market, with growth expected to lift cargo volumes. Continued investment in corridor infrastructure and logistics services will be key to capturing this trade.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded economic growth of 6.5% in 2024, slightly lower than the previous year, driven by expansion in extractive industries. Growth is expected to slow in 2025 as mining activity stabilises, while construction and services are projected to grow steadily.
Namport said fiscal discipline and improved external balances could support currency stability and inflation control in the DRC, but risks remain from conflict, health challenges and global economic uncertainty. The authority said stronger governance and institutions will be important to sustain long-term growth and regional trade flows.
Caption
Namport says shifting regional economic conditions present both opportunities and competitive pressure for Namibia’s ports.
Photo: Contributed
