Chamwe Kaira
Cattle marketing in Namibia fell to 192 300 head in 2025, the lowest level recorded since 2006, according to the Namibia Agriculture Union (NAU).
The union said the decline does not signal weakness in the livestock sector but reflects decisions taken by producers in response to prolonged drought.
“This decline should not be interpreted as a deterioration in the livestock sector; rather, it reflects a rational production response to prolonged drought conditions. Producers deliberately reduced offtake in order to prioritise herd rebuilding and restore productive capacity,” the union said.
Cattle marketing had generally increased since 2006 and peaked in 2019, when 467 418 head were marketed between January and December.
The NAU said the rise was driven by consecutive drought years that forced farmers to destock as grazing conditions worsened.
By the end of 2019, national herd numbers were estimated to have fallen by as much as 50%.
In the years that followed, producers began rebuilding their herds.
However, renewed drought conditions in 2024 slowed recovery and left many farmers operating with only core breeding herds. Improved rainfall toward the end of 2024 has since eased conditions and allowed producers to resume rebuilding.
“Improved rainfall conditions towards the end of 2024 have since created a more favourable production environment, placing producers in a position to recommence herd rebuilding. This investment phase is expected to continue through to 2026, with cattle supplies to abattoirs anticipated to increase from 2027 as producers enter the third year of herd recovery,” the union said.
Lower marketing volumes have pushed abattoir prices higher in nominal terms.
The NAU said prices are expected to remain elevated into 2026.
Compared to the 2017 base year, slaughter cattle prices have increased by about 65%, while weaner prices have grown by only around 1% over the same period.
The union expects cattle prices to continue rising in the short to medium term due to limited supply and ongoing herd rebuilding. It said weaner prices are likely to adjust more slowly as farmers retain young stock and biological production cycles take time.
“Weaner price expectations are further supported by developments in regional feed markets. Yellow maize prices in South Africa, a key input cost for feedlots and backgrounding operations, have remained relatively low, improving feedlot margins.”
A large share of Namibia’s weaner cattle is exported live to South Africa.
The NAU said lower feed costs there should support demand for Namibian weaners and place upward pressure on prices as market activity returns to normal levels.
“Notwithstanding these expectations, price and market outcomes remain subject to animal health risks, particularly foot-and-mouth disease, which could disrupt cross-border trade and market stability.”
Caption
Namibia’s cattle marketing volumes declined in 2025 to their lowest level since 2006.
- Photo: Contributed
