Chamwe Kaira
Tourism revenue is expected to remain above N$3.5 billion in 2026 as Namibia strengthens its premium, experience-driven positioning in global travel markets, according to the Simonis Storm economic outlook for 2026.
The report says the services sector continues to provide stability, with growth of around 4%, supported in part by the resilience of tourism.
Namibia’s economy is entering 2026 in a different position from the immediate post-shock recovery years. The focus has shifted from rebound to consolidation, as policymakers and investors navigate a more stable but constrained growth environment.
Headline projections from the Bank of Namibia, the IMF and the World Bank place real GDP growth between 3.5% and 4.0% in 2026, following an estimated expansion of about 3.5% to 3.8% in 2025.
“However, a more cautious view suggests growth could slow closer to 2.5%, with expansion concentrated in a narrow cluster of sectors while domestic demand remains subdued and fiscal space tight,” the outlook said.
Agriculture reflects mixed conditions. Improved rainfall linked to La Niña patterns in late 2025 has restored soil moisture and eased climate stress. Crop production is expected to rebound, with growth potentially exceeding 4%. Livestock farming is stabilised after drought-driven destocking, with sector revenue projected to surpass N$8 billion as grazing conditions improve.
The report warns that risks such as the possible spread of foot and mouth disease remain a threat to export volumes and herd recovery.
Mining remains a key growth driver, though performance varies across minerals. Uranium production is projected to expand by 5% to 6%, supported by demand for nuclear energy. Metal ores, including gold and copper-linked minerals, are forecast to grow around 7% due to electrification demand. Diamond output is expected to grow by about 1% amid weaker global demand and competition from lab-grown alternatives.
Manufacturing is likely to moderate after stronger growth in 2025. Lower diamond output may weigh on cutting and polishing activity, highlighting the sector’s link to mining. Grain milling remains supported by stable food demand and improved harvest conditions.
Construction is expected to grow between 4% and 6%, driven by public infrastructure spending in water, energy and transport.
“A significant upside exists if oil, gas and green hydrogen projects reach final investment decisions, potentially triggering port upgrades, desalination expansion, grid reinforcement and housing development, particularly in southern Namibia,” the outlook said.
The report also notes that electricity infrastructure is improving, with new solar and wind projects enhancing domestic supply and reducing reliance on imports.
