The African Development Bank’s approval of N$30.3 billion for Namibia under its 2025–2030 Country Strategy Paper is, without question, one of the most significant financial commitments the nation has seen in recent years. Headlines have naturally celebrated the investment as a major win; “economic transformation”, “human capital development”, “strategic infrastructure”, and other familiar phrases have again taken centre stage. But as with all large-scale development financing, the real question for Namibians is simpler and far more urgent: What, exactly, will this money do, and for whom?
The language surrounding the allocation is predictably polished. The AfDB highlights “inclusive growth”, “economic diversification”, and breaking down “structural barriers”. These phrases sound noble, even inspiring. Yet their vagueness often functions more as political insulation than illumination. A country weary of rhetorical promises deserves a clearer explanation of what this money will build, literally and figuratively, and what trade-offs come with it.
What “strategic infrastructure” should mean, but often doesn’t
When any large development loan is announced, Namibians immediately picture new highways or industrial zones. While these have their place, they do not always translate into improved living conditions. Roads do not feed the hungry. Modernised ports do not automatically uplift rural livelihoods. And every new megaproject adds layers of debt that future taxpayers must shoulder.
If “strategic infrastructure” genuinely means upgrading public hospitals, investing in clinics, rehabilitating dilapidated schools, expanding water and sanitation systems, and improving renewable energy access, then it will indeed be money well spent. These are the projects that transform societies from the bottom up. They create healthier, more educated citizens who can participate meaningfully in a diversified economy.
The fear among ordinary citizens is that the bulk of the funding will again be channelled towards prestige projects – expensive, visible, politically rewarding, but with limited impact on people’s everyday struggles. Namibia has had its fair share of monumental projects that look impressive on paper yet fail to address inequality or generate sustained employment.
Human capital development: The difference between talk and action
Another pillar of the strategy is “human capital development”. This term typically encompasses education, healthcare, training, and social protection. Yet for years, Namibia has poured billions into these sectors without achieving results proportional to the investment. Our public schools face chronic shortages of teachers, textbooks, and classrooms. Many rural clinics remain understaffed, under-equipped, or inaccessible. Youth unemployment has reached devastating levels, leaving a generation without prospects.
This is precisely where the AfDB programme could make a historic difference if funds are directed toward tangible, measurable improvements. Imagine scholarships tied directly to technical skills demanded by emerging industries. Imagine modernised vocational centres producing electricians, welders, machinists, and renewable energy technicians. Imagine a health system capable of retaining doctors and nurses, properly equipped to treat citizens without forcing them into private hospitals.
Human capital development is only as good as the systems that support it. Money alone will not fix mismanagement, corruption, or policy inconsistency. Without bold reforms, even the most generous loan risks becoming another missed opportunity.
Economic diversification: Namibia’s longstanding mirage
The AfDB rightly identifies economic diversification as essential to Namibia’s future. Dependence on mining, heavily skewed toward extraction with limited value addition, leaves the country vulnerable to global price swings and external shocks. Agriculture remains underdeveloped, manufacturing minimal, and tourism, once a star performer, is still recovering.
Diversification is the kind of long-term structural change Namibia desperately needs. But again, the term itself is vague. Diversification into what? And who will benefit?
If the funding helps create new industries in agro-processing, green hydrogen value chains, renewable energy technology, digital services, fisheries management, or light manufacturing, industries with high employment potential, then the loan could become a turning point. But diversification must avoid becoming a buzzword used to justify outsourcing policy thinking to consultants and investors whose priorities may not align with Namibia’s long-term social equity goals.
The debt question that never goes away
Every development loan, no matter how well intentioned, comes with future obligations. Namibia is not yet in a debt crisis, but our public debt has grown rapidly over the past decade. New loans require rigorous cost-benefit analysis, strict oversight, and most importantly, transparency. Namibians should know exactly where each dollar is allocated and what returns, economic and social, the country can expect.
Large infrastructure loans often produce inflated budgets, contract overruns, and projects that do not yield the promised impact. Without strong governance, the benefits of development financing can evaporate while the debt remains.
A chance for true transformation, if we claim it
The AfDB’s N$30.3 billion commitment is not inherently good or bad. It is an opportunity, a chance to repair broken systems, expand economic opportunity, and uplift human dignity. But opportunities are only as meaningful as the choices we make with them.
Government must resist the temptation to prioritise ribbon-cutting projects that photograph well but change little. Instead, the focus must shift to the unglamorous but essential work: fixing classrooms, strengthening local clinics, supporting small businesses, empowering young workers, and expanding access to clean water and reliable electricity.
The AfDB may call it “strategic infrastructure”. We can call it what it should truly be: the building blocks of a fairer Namibia. Whether this loan becomes a legacy of transformation or another chapter in a cycle of promises depends on how boldly and how honestly we choose to act.
