Justicia Shipena
Artificial intelligence (AI) could drive growth in low- and middle-income economies if they invest in digital infrastructure and supportive policies, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) says in its 2025 World Trade Report.
The report was launched on Wednesday, during the WTO Public Forum in Geneva, Switzerland.
It shows that under a “policy catch-up” scenario, low-income economies could see gross domestic product (GDP) rise by 11% and middle-income economies by 12.4% by 2040.
High-income economies are projected at 12.2%. With faster technology adoption, the gains could be even higher, reaching 15.3% for low-income and 14.4% for middle-income economies. Global GDP could increase by 12 to 13% across scenarios.
The WTO says AI can reduce trade costs, expand access to services, and strengthen export opportunities in agriculture, healthcare, education, and financial inclusion.
But it warns that without policy and technology catch-up, poorer economies risk falling further behind.
According to the report, patterns of openness across economies show that trade rules on AI are not determined by income levels.
The report estimates that global trade in AI-enabling goods, such as raw materials, semiconductors and intermediate inputs, reached US$2.3 trillion in 2023.
It warns that the number of quantitative restrictions on these goods has risen sharply from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, driven by high- and upper middle-income economies.
Bound tariffs on AI-related goods reach up to 45% in some low-income countries.
WTO director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala says AI has “vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remain highly uneven.”
She added that with the right mix of trade, investment, and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities for all economies.
“With the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all. The WTO is committed to supporting this effort.”
The report notes that if low- and middle-income economies do not close half of their digital infrastructure gap with high-income economies and adopt AI more widely, they will achieve only 8% growth.
The report also highlights that investing in education and training and adopting proper labour market policies can help prevent inequality in economies.
Meanwhile, WTO deputy director general Johanna Hill said AI is emerging as a key force shaping the global economy.
“AI could be a bright spot for trade in an increasingly complex trading environment. It offers new opportunities to reduce trade costs, boost productivity, and expand participation in global markets,” she said.
Hill noted that WTO simulations show AI could raise cross-border flows of goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040, driven by lower trade costs and higher productivity.
A joint WTO–ICC survey found that 90% of firms already using AI reported tangible benefits in trade-related activities. She also warned of risks.
Hill cautioned that the “transformative potential of AI is not guaranteed for everyone alike” and said international cooperation will determine whether the technology supports inclusion.
