Chamwe Kaira
The Namibian economy is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2025, according to the Bank of Namibia’s August economic outlook.
“The domestic economy is estimated to expand marginally by 3.5% in 2025 and by 3.9% in 2026,” said Kazembire Zemburuka, director of strategic communications and international relations at the Bank of Namibia.
He said growth is projected to slow in 2025 before improving in 2026, with GDP growth moderating from 3.7% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025.
The slowdown is mainly due to a contraction in primary industries, particularly the livestock subsector, as reduced herd sizes continue to be affected by the 2024 drought.
The diamond mining sector is also expected to decline, reflecting weak global demand, trade tariffs, and competition from lab-grown alternatives.
The manufacturing sector is forecast to contribute negatively, with contractions in meat processing and basic non-ferrous metals.
Growth is expected to recover to 3.9% in 2026, supported by a rebound in agriculture, strong construction activity, and higher output in uranium and metal ores.
The latest projections for 2025 and 2026 were revised downward by 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points compared to April’s update.
Zemburuka warned of risks to the domestic economy, including reduced diamond export earnings, price pressures, and the rise of lab-grown diamonds.
Protectionist trade policies and inflation from global conflicts could also disrupt trade.
“The combined effects of declining SACU and diamond revenues could lead to rising debt sustainability risks, potentially necessitating expenditure rationing to restore fiscal space,” he said.
Globally, economic activity is expected to slow in 2025 due to heightened policy uncertainty, with growth projected at 3% before edging up to 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.3% in 2024.
For Sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected at 4% in 2025, unchanged from 2024, before rising to 4.3% in 2026.
“The stable growth for 2025 is mainly attributed to the impact of a combination of positive and negative factors. Lower global oil prices represent a positive factor for most of the SSA economies, while protectionist trade policies constitute a negative factor for the region,” Zemburuka said.
