Chamwe Kaira
Namibia’s September trade data shows a slight improvement in external balances but highlights the country’s continued dependence on imported energy and machinery against a narrow, mineral-based export sector, economist Almandro Jansen has said.
He noted that uranium and diamond exports remain Namibia’s main foreign exchange earners but said limited local beneficiation is holding back industrial development. Jansen said diversifying exports through value addition in mining, manufacturing, and agro-processing, together with deeper integration into regional and global supply chains, is essential for building a stronger and more competitive trade sector.
Trade data from the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) shows that the country’s trade deficit narrowed to N$3.4 billion in September, from N$5.3 billion in August and N$5.7 billion a year earlier. Jansen said the improvement mainly reflects a sharper decline in imports compared to exports, indicating a temporary easing in external pressures.
Total exports fell by 3.8% month-on-month and 16% year-on-year to N$7.4 billion. Imports dropped by 16.4% month-on-month and 25.4% year-on-year to N$10.8 billion. From January to September, exports totalled N$91.7 billion, up from N$83.9 billion during the same period in 2024, while imports reached N$109.1 billion, slightly below the N$113.2 billion recorded last year.
Commenting on South Africa’s economic recovery, Jansen said it carries serious consequences for Namibia. “As Namibia’s largest trading partner, South Africa accounts for roughly one-third of Namibia’s total imports and nearly one-fifth of its exports,” he said.
He added that stronger trade activity in South Africa—especially in vehicles, machinery, processed goods, and fuel—directly benefits Namibia through improved supply chains and higher regional demand.
Jansen said higher export volumes from South Africa support Namibia’s logistics and re-export industries through corridors such as the Trans-Kalahari and Walvis Bay routes, strengthening Namibia’s position as a regional trade gateway.
He added that the rebound also helps stabilise Namibia’s import bill and ensures better availability of essential goods such as fuel, food, and industrial inputs. As South Africa’s manufacturing output improves, Namibian sectors linked to construction, transport, and retail are likely to experience more stable costs and reliable supplies.
Jansen warned that if South Africa’s exports come under pressure in 2026 due to the new US tariff regime, Namibia could face higher import costs, reduced SACU revenue, and weaker demand for transshipment services.
He said South Africa’s recovery highlights the importance of regional interdependence within SACU. Namibia’s ability to benefit from South Africa’s industrial rebound while investing in local value addition, logistics capacity, and renewable energy competitiveness will determine its external strength.
Jansen said the shared exposure of the two economies to global commodity cycles, exchange rate shifts and trade policies illustrates the need for deeper coordination and diversification as both countries adapt to the changing global trading landscape in 2026.
