Chamwe Kaira
Namibia’s offshore oil and gas discoveries are expected to shape investment expectations in 2026, but they are unlikely to bring immediate changes to the structure of the economy.
Industry analysts describe the current period as one of positioning.
They say policy clarity, infrastructure readiness and final commercial decisions will determine whether discoveries move to production.
Between 2021 and 2025, more than 15 offshore exploration wells were drilled in Blocks 2913B and 2913A. Operators included TotalEnergies SE, Shell plc, Galp Energia SGPS S.A., Chevron Corporation and partners such as Rhino Resources Namibia and BW Kudu Limited.
Despite multiple discoveries, delays in final investment decisions show that technical success has not yet turned into firm development commitments.
Exploration activity has already influenced capital inflows. Total foreign direct investment stock rose from about N$95 billion to N$100 billion in 2019 to more than N$210 billion to N$220 billion by mid-2025.
Much of this growth came from hydrocarbons, mining and quarrying.
Development models suggest offshore production could begin between 2029 and 2031 under a phased floating production, storage and offloading approach.
Moderate scenarios estimate output of 120 000 to 150 000 barrels per day. Higher development cases could reach 350 000 to 380 000 barrels per day in the mid-2030s.
At 350 000 barrels per day and an oil price of about US$70 per barrel, gross annual revenue could approach US$9 billion, or about N$170 billion.
At 150 000 barrels per day and US$60 per barrel, daily gross revenue could reach about US$60 million to US$70 million.
Using parameters similar to the Venus project linked to TotalEnergies SE, government take at an oil price of about US$60 per barrel could include around US$3 per barrel in royalties, US$11.2 in petroleum income tax and about US$5.2 in additional profits tax.
At a production of 300 000 barrels per day, this structure could generate fiscal receipts of about N$35 billion to N$40 billion per year. Higher production levels could raise government revenue above N$40 billion to N$50 billion annually. More conservative paths may yield between N$15 billion and N$20 billion each year.
For comparison, current corporate tax collections are estimated at about N$12 billion to N$15 billion per year. Hydrocarbon production could expand fiscal capacity, but outcomes depend on global oil prices, project costs and the pace of the global energy transition.
