The Namibian government’s recent announcement that it will take up a 51% stake in all mining operations came at an interesting time, right in the middle of the Mining Expo, where international investors were visiting the country. The timing was clearly intentional, aimed at signaling a new era of resource nationalism. For many Namibians, the declaration sounded like a long-overdue corrective to decades of foreign dominance in the sector. The applause was loud, and understandably so. Who would not support the idea of Namibians finally owning the wealth beneath their soil?
But beneath the rhetoric lies a more complicated reality. As seductive as the idea of majority state ownership may be, the question is whether Namibia is ready for it, and whether it will bring the prosperity its advocates promise. Policy decisions of this magnitude require more than applause, they require a sober look at global trends, lessons from other nations, and an honest assessment of our own capacity.
Let’s face it: the golden era of mining is gone. The days when resource-rich countries could rely on abundant deposits to bankroll national development are fading fast. Globally, ore grades are declining, exploration is costlier, and the capital required to bring new mines online is immense. In such a context, scaring off potential investors with sweeping policies may not just be risky; it could be self-defeating. International mining companies already weigh risk heavily when deciding where to put their money. If Namibia suddenly looks like a place where the rules change overnight, investment could dry up before we even get started.
Other countries have tried similar approaches, with mixed results. Take Bolivia, for instance. The government nationalized its mining sector and asserted strong control over its resources. On paper, this looked like a win for sovereignty. In practice, the state-owned company COMIBOL struggled with inefficiencies, underinvestment, and mismanagement. The result? Production stagnated, and the benefits to ordinary Bolivians were far less than expected.
Chile offers a contrasting story. When it nationalized its copper industry in the 1970s, the move was accompanied by a deliberate effort to build a world-class state-owned enterprise, Codelco. The company became a global leader in copper production, balancing state control with operational efficiency and clear governance structures. Chile’s success was not simply because it owned the mines, but because it invested in the institutional capacity to run them professionally.
Closer to home, Botswana’s partnership with De Beers through Debswana is often cited as a model. The state holds a 50% stake, but the joint venture is managed with corporate discipline and a clear alignment of interests. This arrangement has allowed Botswana to maximize revenue while maintaining investor confidence. It’s a delicate balance, one that requires skill, patience, and above all, strong institutions.
Namibia, by contrast, does not yet have a national mining champion with the expertise or capacity to run complex operations at a world-class level. Our regulatory bodies often struggle with oversight, and the lines between regulator, operator, and political authority are not always clear. Forcing a majority stake without addressing these gaps is like putting the cart before the horse. Ownership without capacity is not empowerment, it’s a liability.
Consider also the investor perspective. Mining is already a high-risk business, with long lead times and unpredictable markets. When governments introduce policies that drastically alter the risk-reward equation, companies may simply walk away. They have options, other countries are competing for the same investment dollars, many offering stable environments and predictable rules. Namibia must ask itself: can we afford to send the signal that we are a difficult place to do business?
That does not mean Namibia should shy away from asserting greater control over its resources. Far from it. But there are smarter ways to do it. Many countries have found middle ground through revenue-sharing, value-addition requirements, and strategic minority stakes. Uganda, for example, recently created a state-owned company to take a 15% free carry in mining ventures. This gives the state a seat at the table without scaring off private investors. Mongolia takes another route, capturing significant value through taxes and royalties while still welcoming international players.
Nigeria has gone further by tying mining licenses to commitments for local processing. Instead of focusing on ownership percentages, it demands that companies invest in domestic value chains. This approach not only brings in revenue but also creates jobs and builds skills, something Namibia desperately needs.
What these examples show is that there is no one-size-fits-all model. Success depends on clarity of purpose, strong institutions, and policies that balance state interests with investor confidence. For Namibia, the first step should be to develop a clear national mining strategy. Not just slogans about ownership, but a serious plan that asks: which minerals do we prioritize? What form of state participation makes sense for each? How do we build the technical expertise to manage our stakes effectively? Without answering these questions, a blanket 51% rule risks being more symbolic than transformative.
The government should also consider piloting this approach rather than imposing it across the board. Test it on one or two projects, learn from the experience, and refine the model before scaling up. At the same time, we must invest in building the institutional capacity to manage and oversee our stakes. Without competent managers, transparent governance, and strict separation between politics and operations, even the most well-intentioned policy can go wrong.
Ultimately, Namibia’s goal should not simply be to own more of its mines on paper. The real goal is to ensure that mining contributes meaningfully to national development—through revenue, jobs, skills, and downstream industries. Ownership is just one tool in that toolkit, not the magic solution.
The government’s bold declaration has set the stage for an important debate about the future of our mining sector. But as we move forward, we must resist the temptation of quick wins and populist gestures. The road to true empowerment is paved with careful planning, capacity building, and strategic partnerships. If we get this wrong, we risk ending up with a bigger share of an ever-shrinking pie. If we get it right, Namibia can write its own success story—one that balances sovereignty with sustainability, and ambition with realism.
