Chamwe Kaira
Namibia’s primary industries are set for a mixed year in 2025, with deep losses in agriculture contrasting with a strong rebound in uranium mining, according to the Bank of Namibia’s December 2025 Economic Outlook Update.
The Bank of Namibia projects a 4.2% contraction in the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector in 2025, a widening from the 2.7% decline in 2024.
The drop is driven mainly by a steep fall in livestock farming, which is expected to shrink by 22.5% as farmers work with reduced herds and limited feed after the 2024 drought. Despite the expectation of an improvement in rainfall in 2026, losses persist.
Crop farming and forestry are projected to recover strongly, growing by 26.2% in 2025 as better rainfall supports replanting. Growth is expected to slow to 4.8% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027 as production levels normalise. Fishing is forecast to remain weak, with the fishing and fish processing on board subsector set to fall by 4.7% in 2025 after lower catch volumes. A mild recovery of 2.2% is expected in 2026.
Mining is projected to show sharp differences across subsectors. Overall mining and quarrying is forecast to grow by 2.2% in 2025, driven almost entirely by a surge in uranium output. The uranium subsector is expected to expand by 23.3% due to rising global demand for nuclear energy and firmer prices.
Other mining segments are expected to remain under strain. Diamond mining is projected to decline by 4.7% in 2025 and continue contracting through 2027 as demand stays weak and lab-grown diamonds gain ground. Metal ores, including copper and zinc, are expected to fall slightly by 0.2% in 2025 before improving in 2026.
Overall GDP growth for 2025 has been reduced by 0.5 percentage points from earlier expectations, with smaller downward adjustments of 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points for 2026 and 2027.
The largest revisions are in agriculture. Livestock farming was revised downward by 5.7 percentage points for 2025, reflecting depleted herds and slow recovery prospects. Crop farming received an upward revision of 17.6 percentage points on the back of improved rainfall and replanting activity.
Manufacturing saw major downward revisions. Growth expectations for basic non-ferrous metals in 2025 were cut by 23.1 percentage points due to reduced copper processing. Diamond processing was revised downward by 7.6 percentage points as global demand for natural diamonds weakened.
The transport and storage sector recorded one of the biggest downward revisions among services. Its 2025 forecast dropped by 4.3 percentage points because trade activity is slowing. Information and communication was revised upward by 4.9 percentage points, reflecting stronger growth in telecommunications and data services.
Caption
Farmers are grappling with reduced herd sizes.
- Photo: Contributed
