PAUL T. SHIPALE (with inputs by Folito Nghitongovali Diawara Gaspar)
Venezuela, the New Diplomacy of Force, and the Quiet Geometry of Global Control
To call this America’s first invasion or its first violation of international law is hypocrisy.
The real question is more unsettling: why does a single power remain so persistently driven to control the world, even at the expense of the order it claims to uphold?
The answer is rarely found in speeches or official declarations. As history repeatedly shows, the true nature of political power lies not in what is promised aloud, but in what is done quietly, in how those without leverage are treated, and in the choices made when no one is counting votes.
This question is no longer philosophical.
It defines the operating environment of global politics today, and it carries direct consequences for Namibia and Africa as a whole.
From rules to raw power
The old language of restraint rules, norms, and multilateral consent has been quietly replaced. What once required congressional authorisation, UN Security Council resolutions, or elaborate legal pretexts is now asserted openly: regime change, economic strangulation, political engineering, and external governance without apology.
This is not ideological drift.
It is structural change.
Power today acts without ceremony. No mandate. No consensus. No embarrassment. What remains is reach, leverage, and outcome. The global system is reverting to a familiar logic: each state for itself, survival over principle.
For Africa, this is not a distant theatre.
It is the terrain.
This is not alarmism.
It is strategic realism.
The structural truth: law follows power
International law has not disappeared, but it no longer constrains evenly. It disciplines the weak while accommodating the strong. Venezuela did not collapse because it lacked legality. It collapsed because it lacked structural power to defend its autonomy.
The pattern is now unmistakable:
• Law follows power more often than it restrains it.
• Stability and resources do not guarantee protection; they attract attention.
• Silence from international institutions is rarely neutrality; it is calculation.
Recognising this is not paranoia.
It is an act of national responsibility.
Venezuela: A laboratory of coercion
Venezuela has become a testing ground for the limits of the international system. Without UN authorisation or lawful justification under the UN Charter, it has endured:
• punitive sanctions,
• recognition of parallel authorities,
• financial isolation,
• covert operations,
• and persistent threats of force,
all framed in the familiar vocabulary of “democracy”, “security”, and “humanitarian concern”.
The UN Charter allows force only in cases of self-defence or Security Council authorisation. What has instead been normalised is coercion without mandate, a practice that hollows out international law while preserving its rhetoric.
When power decides unilaterally when sovereignty becomes conditional, law ceases to restrain the strong. It becomes a management tool for the weak.
Calculated silence and the global order
Global reactions reveal the architecture of fear:
• China and Russia denounce unilateralism.
• The Global South voices concern quietly, cautiously.
• International institutions retreat into procedure, avoiding the central question:
Who decides when international law no longer applies?
Silence is not endorsement.
It is a survival strategy.
But silence, repeated often enough, becomes complicity.
Namibia in the geometry of power
Namibia is peaceful, politically stable, and resource-rich, particularly in uranium, a cornerstone of global energy security. These are strengths. They are also exposures.
In today’s power geometry:
• Embassies and investments are not merely diplomatic or economic; they are nodes of influence.
• Strategic interest is measured not by legality, but by access, leverage, and positioning.
• Sovereignty defined on paper must coexist with sovereignty tested by pressure.
This is not about accusations or conspiracies. It is about systems, not villains.
Loyalty: comfort vs conviction
In peaceful times, loyalty is cheap. Alignment costs nothing when comfort is preserved.
True loyalty reveals itself only under pressure when principles demand sacrifice.
Not in public declarations, but in silent decisions.
As Machiavelli observed, men are known not in comfort but in adversity.
Strategic implications are clear:
• Trust must be tested, not assumed.
• Partners and allies must be evaluated by consistency under stress, not rhetoric in calm.
• Hesitation under pressure is not trivial; it is an early-warning signal.
Power consolidates around those who remain aligned when alignment becomes costly. We are glad that Namibia has voiced her stance on this issue and has described the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro as an unlawful abduction and a violation of international law. The ruling party and its youth wing also condemned the United States for what it called unjustifiable aggression against a sovereign state, saying the detention of a sitting head of state breaches international norms and the principles of the United Nations Charter.
The strategic doctrine: past, present, future, past – learn
• Study Venezuela, Libya, and similar cases as structural models, not moral debates.
• Identify patterns: sanctions, narrative shifts, parallel authorities, institutional silence.
• Understand that omission often signals approval.
Present – act
• Map foreign influence as strategic networks, not isolated investments.
• Recognise that silence rarely equals safety.
• Assert sovereignty with operational backing law, diplomacy, and economic leverage, not slogans.
FUTURE – BUILD
• Strengthen AU and SADC into enforceable mechanisms, not discussion forums.
• Diversify partnerships to avoid structural dependency.
• Scrutinise agreements and infrastructure for long-term leverage and control.
Namibia’s strategic levers
Namibia is not without agency:
1. Uranium and Critical Resources
Export policy is geopolitical leverage, not merely economics.
2. The Legal High Ground
Constitutional strength and legal mastery complicate external coercion and reinforce legitimacy.
3. Regional Unity
Pressure applied nationally becomes costly when confronted regionally.
Conclusion: strategic clarity over comfort
This is not a call to panic.
It is a call to preparation.
In an age drifting toward raw power politics, survival belongs to those who:
• see structural realities clearly,
• test loyalty honestly,
• act strategically in the present,
• and build autonomy for the future.
To the world: Namibia’s sovereignty and resources are not passive endowments. They are actively stewarded, lawfully defended, and regionally reinforced.
To African leaders: Peace and stability are not permanent states. They are responsibilities maintained through foresight, unity, and disciplined strategy.
MOTTO
Alert. Observe. Prepare. Act.
Destiny is not inherited. It is engineered.
Those who understand power structures, test loyalty under pressure, and act with clarity will shape their future rather than have it shaped for them.
The time for strategic clarity is now.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of our employers or this newspaper but are solely our personal views as citizens and Pan-Africanists.
