Jason Kasuto
The expiration of the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) on September 30, 2025, signals a pivotal moment for Africa’s economic trajectory. Since its inception in 2000, AGOA has fuelled African aspirations by providing duty-free access to the lucrative US market—a beacon for growth, jobs, and infrastructure development across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). But with its demise, the continent faces both a challenge and an unprecedented opportunity to redefine its economic destiny beyond dependency.
Understanding AGOA’s impact—A wake-up call for Africa
While AGOA served as a vital bridge for SSA exports—ranging from textiles and apparel to critical minerals—it was always a transient tool rooted in geopolitical alliances. Its terminus underscores a critical reality: Africa’s reliance on external markets and policies makes it vulnerable to shifting foreign priorities. Yet, it also pushes us to look inward, accelerating efforts to harness Africa’s own resources and markets. For instance, the African continent boasts an abundance of critical minerals—like the Democratic Republic of Congo’s cobalt and Namibia’s uranium—that are pivotal to global supply chains, especially in high-tech industries and renewable energy sectors. The potential for these minerals to enhance Africa’s position as a key player in the ‘green economy’ is immense. If harnessed strategically, this could translate into millions of jobs, infrastructure growth, and continental industrialisation.
The opportunity cost of losing AGOA
Data from Fitch Solutions reveal a stark reality: only 19 SSA countries exported mineral fuels under AGOA over its lifespan; this number has dwindled to just four in 2024, with Nigeria accounting for nearly 80% of those exports. Meanwhile, sectors like textiles and apparel—once promising but increasingly sidelined—now contribute a marginal share of the region’s exports to the US. The risk? Africa’s markets may shrink further if we continue relying on external preferences rather than building resilient, intra-continental trade networks. The stark decline—from USD 9.3 billion in 2023 to USD 8 billion in 2024—exposes the urgent need for diversification and enhanced regional integration. Relying solely on external market access can no longer be the growth strategy for Africa’s economies.
Navigating geo-political realities—from dependency to sovereignty
The geopolitical landscape is shifting rapidly. US protectionism, exemplified by the recent Address to the United Nations, signals a retreat from open trade policies—favouring national interests over global cooperation. The implications for SSA are profound: deteriorating US relations with key partners like South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana, Angola, and Namibia could disrupt trade flows and investment. For Namibia, for example, with less than 1% of exports directly linked to the US, the immediate tariff impact might be minimal. Yet, Namibia’s wider trade landscape—dominated by OECD markets—remains vulnerable to global shifts. Meanwhile, other nations face varying degrees of risk, from political instability to commodity price fluctuations. Africa’s Path Forward—Toward Self-Reliance and Regional Integration The end of AGOA presents an urgent call for Africa to pivot from external dependence to proactive continental strategies. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), launched to eliminate tariffs and barriers within Africa, is vital in this regard. It embodies a collective push toward economic sovereignty. Strengthening digital trade platforms, industrial policies, and intra-African investment flows can foster resilient economies less vulnerable to external shocks.
Moreover, forging new trade partnerships—within Africa and with emerging markets—will be crucial. The continent must craft policies that prioritise local value addition, industrial development, and sustainable resource management. By doing so, Africa can unlock its full potential, transforming raw materials into finished goods and creating a large, integrated market that benefits all.
In conclusion: Embracing the challenge as an opportunity
The expiration of AGOA marks neither the end of Africa’s economic prospects nor its ability to thrive independently. Instead, it heralds an era where the continent must harness its natural resources, diversify its markets, and deepen regional integration to secure a prosperous future. If African nations approach this moment with strategic vision, investment in technology, and unwavering commitment to continental unity, Africa can emerge as a formidable economic force—profitable, self-reliant, and truly independent. The time has come for Africa to write its own trade and development narrative—one that echoes across the continent and beyond.
*Jason Kasuto is the managing director at Monasa Advisory and Associates. He can be reached Jason at jkasuto@monasa.org.
