Vusi Thembekwayo
I stood in a room in Windhoek last week and asked one question that silenced the conversation:
“Does the person who goes to bed hungry eat complacence?”
I was invited to deliver the keynote at the Namibia Budget Dialogue 2026 alongside Finance Minister Ericah Shafudah, and what I saw in that room gave me hope and, with that, left me with some questions.
I am a numbers guy, so let me tell you what hope looks like when backed by data.
The resource
The Orange Basin holds an estimated 11 billion barrels of light oil. TotalEnergies is moving toward a Final Investment Decision on the Venus field THIS YEAR. For someone with exposure to the upstream oil business, I can tell you that reaching FID is a major milestone.
The first oil is targeted for 2029.
Then, the $10 billion Hyphen Green Hydrogen project, targeting 3.75 GW of clean energy. It’s had its niggles, but that project is expected to create 15,000 construction jobs and 3,000 permanent positions. The AfDB’s $10 million loan in December 2025 acted as a “de-risking” signal for private capital. Okay, now is the time to accelerate.
So these major catalytic infrastructure playbooks are not part of the future story. These are the NOW stories.
… and one hasn’t even factored in the adjacent and downstream industries that can be spurred by getting these off the ground.
The gap we cannot afford to ignore
Namibia has over 40,000 SMEs. According to the data, these support 200,000 livelihoods. And yet, an estimated 90% of them collapse within five years. That’s not just a number. That 180,000 dreams shattered, finances destroyed or severely diminished, and futures hoped for but not actualised.
To be clear, every government has a “failing small businesses” problem. Particularly in Africa. The challenge is not how to stop this, but how to systematically and substantially reduce it.
Think about that: Ninety per cent! Reducing that is the real opportunity. So, why do so many businesses fail? My sense is that this is as much a “system design” issue as a demand issue. The system hasn’t been sufficiently intentional about supporting the right kind of business at the right time with the right tools.
Free markets work for existing businesses. But regulation is what powers startups. The historical record is irrefutable on this. Here is the hard truth: a National AI Strategy is only as powerful as the businesses that will implement it.
You cannot build an innovation-led economy on the back of enterprises that cannot survive their fifth birthday. If Namibia is serious about becoming a regional hub for AI in emerging economies, and the February 2025 National AI Strategy says it is, then the budget must speak to innovation-led SMEs the way it speaks to infrastructure.
Not as charity. As a strategy. I am aware of the ScaleUp Namibia initiative, launched in February 2025. It is a step in the right direction. We implement bigger programmes through the school of scale for government clients in the Middle East and the Americas. So I can tell you what works and what doesn’t.
I am aware that the Development Bank’s new venture capital mechanism targets high-potential SMEs. Again, this is another promising signal. And the SME Recovery Loan Scheme has already deployed nearly N$400 million to over 360 businesses.
Not bad. But, and I remember my team, MyGrowthFund Venture Partners, submitting something to the GIPF years ago, and when the numbers were then, the need was much, much more.
This is what makes me different. I am writing from the armchair. I have the data. Here is a matchbox calculation: market demand = total number of businesses dying – number of businesses funded.
This is a very simplistic calculation, laden with assumptions, but humour me. Run the calculation yourself.
So, the question is: how can Namibia cascade the major natural resource finds and new industry wins into meaningful “real economy” support for its next-generation businesses and entrepreneurs?
Here is my simple thinking: Namibia needs a dedicated, ring-fenced investment mandate for innovation-led, tech-enabled SMEs. Not micro-loans for survival. Venture capital for scale.
The GIPF already deploys N$92 billion locally; a fraction of that directed into a national innovation fund would change the trajectory of an entire generation of Namibian entrepreneurs. This is simple portfolio construction & I am happy to share the numbers with anybody who cares to interrogate them.
Like I said on stage, “No FDI or aid funding is going to sustainably invest in another nation’s innovation. Not completely. Not sustainably.”
The AI strategy exists on paper. The pension capital exists in the fund. The entrepreneurs exist in the ecosystem.
What is missing is the intentional bridge between them, just like we are doing with some of our clients now.
Can this be done? Well, Namibia has a solid foundation.
The foundation
The Namibian Stock Exchange has risen by nearly 30% over the past 12 months. The GIPF pension fund holds N$183 billion in assets, with pension fund assets exceeding 106% of GDP. Namibians are saving. Those savings must now be made to work for the next generation of Namibian builders.
So when Minister Shafudah said to me, “Welcome to your second home”, I understood the weight of that welcome.
Namibia is not a country waiting for oil money to fix things. It is a country that has been quietly building the institutional muscle to handle prosperity responsibly.
My message was simple: You have a once-in-a-generation find beneath your waters. Build the oasis above it.
And make sure the entrepreneur in Katutura, the one coding her AI solution at midnight with no funding and no safety net, is part of the story.
Because if she is not, you would have missed a once-in-a-generation opportunity. Namibia, ngiyabonga for hosting me.
*Vusi Thembekwayo is a South African entrepreneur, author, investor, speaker and businessman.
