Staff Writer
Simonis Storm Securities projects Namibia’s real GDP growth at about 2.3% in 2026, slightly below government estimates.
The firm said recent developments such as stability in the mining sector, infrastructure spending and improving private sector sentiment after the eurobond repayment are expected to support growth over time.
“This disconnect is in the previous good developments that have happened, like mining sector stabilisation (uranium and gold), infrastructure spending multipliers and improving private sector sentiment following the Eurobond retirement; the momentum is building and will filter through in the next year or two,” the firm said.
Simonis said a stronger growth phase could come between 2027 and 2028. It said this depends on the petroleum amendment bill being passed, progress on final investment decision talks with TotalEnergies, and movement of projects from planning to construction.
“This would represent the most significant structural improvement in Namibia’s growth trajectory since independence. The risk scenario of further legislative delay, commodity price deterioration, or fiscal overstretch pushes the re-rating beyond the medium-term horizon,” the firm said.
The firm said oil developments could create early opportunities for local businesses. It pointed to demand in logistics, engineering, professional services and labour as projects move forward.
Simonis also said exploration of lithium, graphite and rare earth minerals is increasing. It said policies that support local processing could benefit companies that invest early.
The firm said the target to build 10 000 housing units each year will support demand for construction materials, contractors and related services.
It said the 2026 State of the Nation Address shows that the government understands the country’s economic challenges and is working on systems to manage resource development.
“The central scenario is gradual acceleration. The pace is determined above all by oil sector regulatory completion and government’s willingness to enforce the contract sanctity and anti-corruption discipline that underpins every other investment case in this analysis,” Simonis added.
