Chamwe Kaira
The recent announcement of a 15 percent tariff on Namibian exports to the US and a 30% tariff on South African goods has implications that go beyond trade flows, analyst Almandro Jansen of Simonis Storm Securities has warned.
Jansen said these measures will also affect how money moves across borders, particularly through the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system, the backbone of international payments.
SWIFT is used by over 11 000 financial institutions worldwide. It allows banks to send payment instructions, settle cross-border trade, and communicate in a standard format.
Almost every Namibian dollar earned from exports is processed through SWIFT, often routed via correspondent banks in South Africa or Europe before final settlement in major currencies such as the US dollar or euro.
Jansen said the tariffs will likely reduce Namibia’s SWIFT traffic with US counterparties.
“Higher tariffs make Namibian goods less competitive in the American market, particularly for mineral exports such as uranium and agricultural products like grapes and beef. Lower export volumes translate directly into fewer US dollar receipts being settled through SWIFT. While the US is not Namibia’s largest customer, its strategic importance lies in the currency dimension. The US dollar remains the dominant trade settlement currency worldwide, and any reduction in dollar inflows can make payment cycles more complex and costly for a small, open economy like Namibia,” he said.
He added that the effects through South Africa could be even more significant. Namibia depends on South African banks for US dollar clearing because most Namibian banks do not have direct correspondent accounts in New York.
“If South African exporters see a sharp drop in their US-bound sales under the new tariffs, their banks will generate fewer dollar inflows. This weakens the very channels Namibia relies on, potentially leading to slower settlements, higher transaction costs, and tighter liquidity for cross-border trade payments. In effect, Namibia’s financial exposure to US tariffs is magnified by its dependence on South Africa’s financial system,” Jansen said.
He warned that in the medium term, the tariffs could shift Namibia’s trade and financial flows.
Exporters of uranium, copper, beef, and grapes may redirect sales to Europe, Asia, and African markets under AfCFTA. With fewer US dollars flowing into SACU, regional dollar liquidity will shrink, which could put pressure on Namibia’s currency peg to the rand, he said.
Caption
Namibian banks use the SWIFT payment platform
- Photo: Contributed
