Wandile Sihlobo
We are entering a busy period in South Africa’s agricultural production cycle. On April 23, we are due to receive the Crop Estimate Committee’s (CEC) third production forecast for 2025-26 summer grains and oilseeds. This estimate is typically a stronger indicator than the first two on how the season’s harvest will look, as the crop has largely passed the pollination stage.
At the same time, we are due to get the CEC data on farmers’ planting intentions for 2026-27 winter crops. The weather outlook, winter crop prices, and the availability and cost of inputs, among other considerations, inform farmers’ planting decisions for the season.
At the end of this month, citrus farmers and strawberry growers will begin the harvest season and their export season.
To them, the efficiency of domestic ports, shipping costs, and access to export markets less affected by the Middle East war are top-of-mind issues.
We remain optimistic about the readiness of the domestic ports. The ports operated quite efficiently last season, ensuring a successful citrus export season.
What worries us are the export markets, especially as South Africa’s available citrus for exports may increase by approximately 3% to 5%, reaching a total of between 210 and 215 million 15 kg cartons in 2026. Such volumes will require export markets. The Middle East, an important export market, may remain difficult to access. Making things more challenging is that we also anticipate stiff competition from higher citrus volumes from South America.
Regarding the 2025-26 summer grains and oilseeds production season, the outlook has remained broadly positive. At the end of March, CEC projections placed South Africa’s 2025-26 summer grains and oilseeds production at 20.3 million tonnes, which is 1% below the 2024-25 production season. We must not forget that the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds were the second largest on record.
Therefore, the fact that the 2025-26 estimate is marginally lower than it was is not cause for concern, as this would still be robust output. This production figure comprises maize, sunflower seed, soybean, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans.
It is likely that when the CEC releases an update on April 23, it will maintain a decent harvest projection or possibly raise the estimates slightly, as weather conditions have remained generally favourable and the crop is now maturing.
With respect to the 2026-27 winter crop season, our focus will primarily be wheat, barley, canola and oats. Input costs are likely the major factor farmers will be most concerned about this time around, as fertiliser and fuel prices have increased notably since the start of the Middle East war.
Still, it is unclear how many farmers had procured their inputs by the time the war started, and therefore, the planting intentions data will be valuable for providing that insight. Another key factor farmers will consider is the winter weather outlook.
In its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch released on 2 March, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) signalled prospects of a relatively drier winter season. The SAWS stated that “during the autumn and early winter, it is only the southern and eastern coastal areas that receive significant rainfall. For these areas, the south-eastern and eastern coastal areas are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, and the south-western parts below-normal rainfall.”
The south-western regions of South Africa that the SAWS cites include the Western Cape, where over two-thirds of South Africa’s winter crops are cultivated. Still, it is too early to be certain. The update for this month will perhaps be more informative about the weather prospects for the season.
Also worth noting is that wheat prices are likely to remain under pressure amid ample global supplies from the 2025-26 season. South Africa is a net importer of wheat and is exposed to global price movements, which ultimately means that, even domestically, global wheat prices may remain under pressure for some time. These factors matter in farmers’ planting decisions, and right now we see more negative factors.
In essence, South Africa’s agriculture is in a critical month that guides us on the possible fortunes of summer and winter grain production, citrus, and strawberry production.
For winter crops, the weather remains the major risk on the path forward, along with higher input costs. For other crops, higher fuel prices, rising shipping costs, and logistical challenges in the Middle East are major concerns. On this, a collaborative effort by government and business to open new markets and negotiate with existing markets to absorb more product than usual is key.
